Moviepass is one of those companies that people just can’t seem to figure out.  The concept is simple: one low price and you can see one movie a day, every day.  The idea is great for the consumer but not so good if you’re MoviePass, which pays out full price for every ticket it purchases.  In fact, recently, MoviePass’ business model has come under fire from critics when an independent auditor claimed that the business model is unsustainable.  To that remark, I say “no duh.”  The model doesn’t fit.  But MoviePass isn’t alone in being a tech company (yes, it’s a tech company) that hemorrhages money. Uber has been doing it for year.

Until recently, customers who wanted the service could still purchase the unlimited plan.  That was, as I said, until recently.  MoviePass launched a new plan a few weeks ago that bundles the movie-enthusiast service with iHeart Radio, a music app owed by Clear Channel.  While the two companies have partnered together, neither one is particularly fit for the other (iHeart declared bankruptcy previously).  But what is more striking about the pairing is the small change that MoviePass made to their business model.  You can now only see four movies a month; one each week.

Interestingly enough, as of this writing, the terms and conditions (T&C’s) haven’t changed on the site to reflect this current promotion. MoviePass only makes the statement of the four movie limit on its sign-up page. But even with the lack of update to the company’s T&C’s, it’s still disconcerting to see this change occur as MoviePass has been touting their ability to be solvent all the while signing people up for unlimited movies. When asked by the Hollywood Reporter to comment about when the four movie limit promotion may go way, MoviePass CEO Mitch Lowe couldn’t offer a finite response.  This certainly has more than a few people concerned, including myself. Still, the company has not changed it’s policy for existing customers.  Those who have prepaid or are paying the $9.95 monthly fee are grandfathered at this point, but for how long?

The answer isn’t clear but what is clear is that MoviePass is trying to “right the ship,” so to speak.  This new offer could be a legitimate way to help lower costs the company is incurring for every customer it acquires.  Take myself, for example.  In the 5 months that I have been a MoviePass customer, I have averaged 3.6 movies a month for a total of 18 movies, most likely costing MoviePass $216 against the $50 I’ve paid to MoviePass (18 movies at $12 each).  According to MoviePass, the average consumer see’s about 2 movies a month.  What’s more notable, however, is that 12% of the MoviePass’ 2+ million customers see more than that average.  It’s these customers who are potentially hurting MoviePass. But I’m not going to declare MoviePass dead…yet.

As I mentioned before, Uber is a money-drain as well losing $2.8 Billion dollars in 2016.  The only thing keeping Uber alive is belief from the Venture Capitalists (VC’s) who somehow can’t find fault with the business model.  Maybe it’s the promise of future technology such as self-driving cars or the disruption of the taxi industry and the medallions that go along with it.  And this is something that MoviePass might be missing in it’s business model.

Sure, MoviePass is getting into the business of acquiring movie properties but it needs to translate that into usable revenue.  We shall see if that happens with this Gotti flick staring John Travolta (Travolta’s not really a box office draw these days).  Further, the company is promising advanced analytics for studios and exhibitors.  Sadly, analytics can only get you so far.  Most of the major studios are spending hundreds of millions on casting a wide advertising net to capture big audiences.  Will they spend that money to advertise on a service that promises all-you-can-eat movies?  Only if MoviePass can actually bring an audience.  MoviePass is commoditizing the market for movie-goers; there is little proof that MoviePass adds any value to an advertiser other than just enabling a person to see a film. And this is why MoviePass may have a hard sell on collecting that valuable share of marketing dollar.

The other issue is that big exhibitors could cut MoviePass out of picture all together.  While it would be hard for a theater chain such as AMC to cut out MasterCard, the card of choice for MoviePass, it would be real easy to undercut MoviePass by offering a comparable service with help from the studios.  I would never rule out the big chains doing it all on their own and undercutting the MoviePass service.  If the chains do implement such an option, then I think the bet is safe that MoviePass will die.

Of course, this is all speculation.  Mitch Lowe is keeping the future of MoviePass to himself other than that little bit he’s already told us.  Maybe Mitch Lowe does have an ace up his sleeve or has a technique to keep MoviePass alive.  It wouldn’t be impossible for MoviePass to survive, after all, look at Uber.  But unless MoviePass comes up with something that exhibitors or studios want, right now, I’d say survival is bleak.  The 4 movie limit could be a savior or buy it some time.  But the only way to know is to get a time machine and jump ahead…so as they say in movies, only time will tell.  But I’m not holding my breath that somehow MoviePass will survive.

*Disclosure: The author of this op-ed has investments in MoviePass parent company Helios and Matheson.